Students ’ Views Related to Chance Variability

THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE OF THE STUDY The understanding of statistical variation is a core idea for describing and assessing statistical literacy (Watson & Callingham, 2003; Kuntze, Lindmeier & Reiss, 2008). In these studies, dealing with variation has been in the focus of the development of competency models, which were evaluated successfully showing the one-dimensionality of the underlying competency constructs (Rasch model). The corresponding empirical studies were based on test instruments developed according to the competency models. However, beyond pure abilities of dealing with statistical variation, there is probably a backing of these abilities in individual views/convictions about the roles of randomness and determinism. For example, Engel and Sedlmeier (2005) found that learners often hold strong determinist views that might constrict the development of a sufficient understanding of chance variability. These learners favoured regular, determinist patterns in distributions instead of more probable, less regular outcomes. If learners endorse such determinist views, it is very probable that they encounter difficulties when they have to construct mental models linked with statistical variation. Hence, views about chance variability should be considered as a potentially crucial influencing factor on statistical literacy. However, in many studies, views related to chance variability were examined based on mainly one task, in which learners were asked to draw a typical distribution of raindrops on a roof in the form of 16 squares. Consequently, there is a need of broadening the empirical base when examining views related to chance variability. Responding to this research need, the present study aims to investigate views related to chance variability of learners of different age groups and to evaluate a corresponding questionnaire instrument.